Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the country and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses something to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
